France’s minority government is on the brink of collapse after the country’s three main opposition parties declared they would not support Prime Minister Francois Bayrou in a crucial confidence vote scheduled for September 8. The far-right National Rally, the Greens, and the Socialist Party – whose support is essential for Bayrou’s survival – all announced their opposition to his government’s plans for sweeping budget cuts. This unified rejection significantly increases the likelihood that Bayrou’s government will fall when the National Assembly holds the vote next month.
The political uncertainty has already rattled financial markets, with the risk premium on French bonds over German equivalents rising to its highest level since mid-June. France’s CAC-40 index of leading shares fell 1.6% as investors reacted to the growing instability. If Bayrou loses the confidence vote, President Emmanuel Macron would face several options: appointing a new prime minister immediately, keeping Bayrou as caretaker leader, or calling snap elections – a scenario Macron has faced before when his previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, was ousted by a no-confidence vote in late 2024 after just three months in office.
Prime Minister Bayrou acknowledged the gamble he was taking by seeking confidence from a deeply fragmented parliament, but argued that inaction posed even greater risks given France’s substantial debt burden. His proposed 44 billion euro budget squeeze aims to address a deficit that reached 5.8% of GDP last year, nearly double the EU’s 3% limit. The austerity measures include controversial proposals to scrap two public holidays and freeze welfare spending and tax brackets at 2025 levels without inflation adjustments.
The opposition parties have united in their rejection of Bayrou’s austerity program. National Rally leader Marine Le Pen declared her party would vote against the government, stating it was “making the French people suffer.” The Greens similarly announced their opposition, while Socialist party leader Olivier Faure confirmed his lawmakers would not support the confidence motion. With left-wing parties and the far-right aligned against the government, and protests planned for just two days after the vote, Bayrou’s minority government appears increasingly isolated and vulnerable to being ousted.
