The OPEC+ alliance is expected to agree on Sunday to a further increase in oil output, though the pace of the rise is set to slow from October compared to recent months. According to an Iraqi official and sources within the group, this cautious approach reflects concerns over a potential weakening in global oil demand. The decision will be made during an online meeting of the member countries.
This planned increase would mark an acceleration of the group’s strategy to unwind production cuts implemented previously. If approved, OPEC+ would begin to reverse a second layer of cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day more than a year ahead of schedule. The group has already been gradually restoring output since April in response to pressure from consumers like the United States for lower prices.
The specific size of the output hike remains under discussion. Iraq’s OPEC delegate stated the increase would likely be between 130,000 and 140,000 barrels per day. Other sources familiar with the talks suggested a figure of at least 135,000 bpd, with one estimating a potential for a larger increase of up to 350,000 bpd. This is a significant slowdown from the 547,000 bpd increase agreed upon for September.
A major constraint on OPEC+’s ability to influence the market is that most member countries are already pumping at or near their capacity. Analysts and data indicate that only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess significant spare capacity to add more barrels to the global market, limiting the practical impact of any decision to raise quotas.
