European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to Scotland on Saturday for a high-stakes meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday, as officials from both sides signaled a potential breakthrough in trade negotiations. Trump, who arrived in Scotland for golf and diplomatic talks, praised von der Leyen as a “highly respected leader” and estimated a 50-50 chance of securing a deal. He claimed the EU was eager to reach an agreement, which he said could surpass the recent $550 billion U.S.-Japan trade pact in scale.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also flew to Scotland for last-minute negotiations ahead of the Trump-von der Leyen meeting. An anonymous administration source expressed cautious optimism, stating, “We’re cautiously optimistic that there will be a deal reached, but it’s not over till it’s over.” The EU, meanwhile, has prepared contingency measures, approving retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion ($109 billion) of U.S. goods should talks fail.
A potential agreement could include a 15% general tariff on EU imports to the U.S., mirroring the U.S.-Japan deal, alongside a 50% levy on European steel and aluminum. This would be significantly lower than the 30% across-the-board tariffs Trump had threatened to impose starting August 1. However, Trump insisted the EU must “buy down” the higher rate and ruled out major concessions on metals tariffs, stating, “If I do it for one, I have to do it for all.” Questions remain over whether the U.S. will exempt the EU from additional sectoral tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other goods.
The U.S. and EU are each other’s largest trading partners, with bilateral commerce totaling trillions of dollars. The American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels has warned that escalating trade tensions could jeopardize $9.5 trillion in economic activity. As von der Leyen and Trump prepare to meet, the outcome could reshape transatlantic trade relations—either easing tensions or triggering a new wave of tariffs and countermeasures.